The final MRP projection from Survation is in, and it shows some high-profile Torys may well lose their seats in the General Election.

Survation is a polling and market research agency who have been regularly putting together an MRP seat projection across the country, ever since Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the General Election on May 22.

The MRP seat projection is created by Survation using data from more than 30,000 respondents. The agency then makes seat-level forecasts using the data. To read more about Survation's use of MRP, click here.

The final projection (July 2) predicts heavy Tory loss in Cambridgeshire, with only one incumbent set to survive polling day. Keep reading to find out who is projected to win your local seat.

The final MRP seat projection before polling day

Huntingdon

Despite Huntingdon being known as a "safe" Tory seat for decades, Alex Bulat is projected to win the seat for the Labour Party.

The estimated vote share is as follows:

  • Alex Bulat (Labour) - 38.8 per cent
  • Ben Obese-Jecty (Conservative) - 28.2 per cent
  • Sarah Smith (Reform UK) - 14.5 per cent
  • Mark Argent (Liberal Democrats) - 10.9 per cent
  • Georgie Hunt (Green Party) - 5.1 per cent
  • Dr Chan Abraham (Independent - listed as 'Other' on Survation MRP) - 2.4 per cent

North West Cambridgeshire

Shailesh Vara has held the North West Cambridgeshire seat for the Conservatives since 2005. However, Sam Carling is projected to win the seat for the Labour Party for the first time.

The estimated vote share is as follows:

  • Sam Carling (Labour) - 36.3 per cent
  • Shailesh Vara (Conservative) - 32.2 per cent
  • James Sidlow (Reform UK) - 21.2 per cent
  • Bridget Smith (Liberal Democrats) - 6.4 per cent
  • Elliot Tong (Green Party) - 3.8 per cent

St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire

The boundary changes have brought about a new constituency and seat in Cambridgeshire - St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire. It's all to play for in this patch.

The estimated vote share is as follows:

  • Ian Sollom (Liberal Democrats) - 30.1 per cent
  • Marianna Masters (Labour) - 28 per cent
  • Anthony Browne (Conservative) - 26.1 per cent
  • Guy Lachlan (Reform UK) - 8.4 per cent
  • Kathryn Fisher (Green Party) - 5.8 per cent
  • Stephen Ferguson and Bev White ((Independent and Party of Women - listed as 'Other' on Survation MRP) - 1.7 per cent

Ely and East Cambridgeshire

Lucy Frazer was the Conservative MP for South East Cambridgeshire since 2015, and is standing for the Tory Party again in Ely and East Cambridgeshire.

The Secretary of State looks set to be unseated in this General Election, adding to the list of big name Conservatives likely to lose their seat.

The estimated vote share is as follows:

  • Charlotte Cane (Liberal Democrats) - 31 per cent
  • Lucy Frazer (Conservative) - 28.4 per cent
  • Elizabeth McWilliams (Labour) - 25.2 per cent
  • Ryan Coogan (Reform UK) - 11.5 per cent
  • Andy Cogan (Green Party) - 2.9 per cent
  • Robert Bayley, Hoo Ray Henry, Obi Monye and Rob Rawlins (Independent, Social Democratic Party and The Official Monster Raving Looney Party - listed as 'Other' on Survation MRP) - 1 per cent

North East Cambridgeshire

Steve Barclay, the incumbent Tory in North East Cambridgeshire, is projected to keep his seat with quite a large vote share.

The estimated vote share is as follows:

  • Steve Barclay (Conservative) - 33.6 per cent
  • Javeria Hussain (Labour) - 23.5 per cent
  • Christopher Thornhill (Reform UK) - 22.5 per cent
  • Andrew Crawford (Green Party) - 12.2 per cent
  • David Chalmers (Liberal Democrats) - 6.1 per cent
  • David Patrick and Clayton Payne (Independent and Workers Party of Britain - listed as 'Other' on Survation MRP) - 2.2 per cent

Peterborough

The Peterborough constituency is set to swing to Labour in this General Election, leaving the Conservative candidate, Paul Bristow, without a seat.

The estimated vote share is as follows:

  • Andrew Pakes (Labour) - 44 per cent
  • Paul Bristow (Conservative) - 23.6 per cent
  • Nicola Day (Green Party) - 12.8 per cent
  • Sue Morris (Reform UK) - 10.5 per cent
  • Nick Sandford (Liberal Democrats) - 4.8 per cent
  • Amjad Hussain, Zahid Khan and Tom Rogers (Workers Party of Britain, Independent and Christian Peoples Alliance - listed as 'Other' on Survation MRP) - 4.3 per cent